The Crypto Wild Wild West

I had some bitcoin back in 2013 already.  So I should be very rich now, right?  Well, I’m not.  Because first of all I just bought a very little in order to use it in real transactions to buy stuff, as I expected this crypto thing to be huge some day and I wanted to get a feel of it.  And secondly, I sold my bitcoin way too early in 2016.

I’ve never thrown away a winning lottery ticket only to see the winning combination a week later, but I guess the feeling must have been similar for a lot of people who had given up their old laptop for recycling only to remember at the end of 2017 there was something like a bitcoin wallet key and password on that laptop.  Oops.  Sometimes bubbles and hype bring back those good old memories…

5 years ago bitcoin was not an investment for most people who knew it, it was just a new kind of digital currency for transactions and it happened to share some properties with real gold as we all know.  Some even called it gold 2.0.

However, not too many shops on the internet allowed the use of bitcoin back then, and after a while I lost my interest in the whole thing and I even forgot I had an account.

1 bitcoin was around 250 dollar for a long time, went down a little and when I remembered my forgotten bitcoin account I saw the price was back where it started for me.  It was 2015/2016 and bitcoin had not succeeded in becoming a popular payment method like paypal.  Transaction fees were high and transactions were also slow.  In fact, the whole system sucked.   Even worse, big e-commerce shops that were planning to allow the use of bitcoin cancelled their plans.

So I used most of my remaining bitcoin to buy some electronics in one of the few shops where you could pay with it and I sold the remaining value on coinbase and transferred it back to my regular bank account.    Of course, the value of bitcoin started to rise just after that until the end of 2017.  In hindsight, it seems stupid, but people who would call themselve a crypto expert in 2017 claiming to know everything about Ethereum, Litecoin, Ripple or whatever, well… most of them didn’t even know what a crypto was in 2016.

Even friends told me they were buying crypto’s and that I should do the same because we were going to miss the train.  Well, I missed the train already in 2016 and I was certainly not going to jump on it again because the price was going parabolic.  Everything that goes parabolic comes down hard and it did.  You should stay away from that.  Always.  In case of the bitcoin it crashed from about over 19300 USD to 6900 USD.  That was an interesting Fibonacci retracement level and worth a try for a very small amount of money if you’re not afraid of some risk.  I wouldn’t sell my home and live in a camper for bitcoin like mr Didi Taihuttu did, but I believe the bitcoin price can at least bounce back a little.  I don’t say it’s going further until 100000 USD but at least it can go up a little now, it’s purely technical.  I know, that’s not investing though, it’s a little bit closer to casino or Russian roulette but why not have some fun together with the Koreans?  The biggest problem by the way may not be just the price going down, but the fact that you are always dependent on a system.  Once the price of a crypto goes into crash mode you may get the following error when visiting your exchange: “Our site is down due to technical problems.  Please try again later”.   “Later” in that case will be days or weeks and your crypto may be worth nothing when the “technical” problems have been solved, or in other words, when the crash has come to an end.

And yes, maybe the bitcoin will crash to zero, but cryptocurrencies are here to stay.  There will be regulation some day, and the creation of a new cryptocurrency backed by the government is just a matter of time (there are attempts but not very good ones) and the official reasons will certainly be to protect you from all the bad criminals trying to hack your digital wallet, or maybe it will be to block those scary terrorists or drug dealers doing money laundering or whatever.   In reality, they are just afraid of losing control.

They could regulate bitcoin, but that doesn’t matter as your local hitman will probably prefer monero for his/her services anyway.  There will always be another dark crypto, out of control.

I could be wrong but I believe bitcoin can still go up from here.  Short term.


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